U.S. Employment Increased by 80,000 in July, Unemployment Rate Expected to Remain at 4.2%

Ahead of the U.S. Department of Labor's employment report for July, it is projected that non-farm payrolls will increase by 80,000 and the unemployment rate will remain at 4.2%. This employment indicator is being closely watched as a key variable to gauge the slowdown of the U.S. labor market. Although recent job openings and private employment growth have slowed, there are analyses suggesting that the overall labor market remains stable, with a decrease in layoff plans and wage increases. According to Bloomberg, new jobs in July are expected to increase more than the 57,000 reported in June. While job openings in the U.S. slightly decreased in June, the turnover rate, layoff rate, and hiring rate showed little change. The private sector employment data from ADP for July also fell short of market expectations, but the wage growth rate for workers who changed jobs has improved. The Bank of America Institute reported that the pace of wage increases accelerated in July, attributing the job growth among low-income workers as a driving factor for employment expansion. Participation in gig work is also increasing, and the July employment report is expected to serve as a turning point to confirm whether the U.S. labor market continues to show stability even amid a slowdown.

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