Natixis Expects the Federal Reserve to Keep Rates Unchanged in 2026

Natixis Chief U.S. Economist Christopher Hodge stated that Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's hawkish stance may create a "credibility trap." Hodge pointed out that Warsh's aversion to "forward guidance" and the "dot plot" is reasonable in the current uncertain environment, but it also indicates a risk-averse tendency. If CPI data shows noise in the coming months due to short-term disruptions like tariffs or energy shocks, Warsh may be forced to raise rates. Natixis expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates unchanged throughout 2026.

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