US Senator Calls for CFTC to Ban California Wildfire Prediction Market

Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley has written to Michael Selig, chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), urging the agency to prohibit betting on California wildfires in prediction markets, expressing concerns that traders might set fires for profit. The letter mentions that during the January 2025 Los Angeles wildfire, approximately $1.2 million in related bets were placed, with the total market trading volume for the Palisades Fire's complete extinguishment reaching $711,587, and the largest single bet being $274,797, indicating that most funds were betting on a slow firefighting progress. The new rules proposed by the CFTC on June 10 require a review of each contract, covering terrorism, assassination, war, gambling, and illegal activities, but do not address wildfires.

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