Mizuho: Current Crypto Rally Quality Surpasses Previous Ones, Driven by Spot and ETFs
On August 26, Mizuho investment banking analyst Dan Dolev stated that the current rebound in Bitcoin and crypto-related stocks is of higher quality than in the past, primarily driven by spot and ETFs rather than high leverage. The open interest in Bitcoin futures has fallen to a one-month low after the initial rebound, indicating a healthier capital structure. In previous rallies, rapid accumulation of leverage often led to increased price volatility and triggered chain liquidations. In this round, the net inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs was approximately $1.9 billion, marking the strongest week since October 2025, suggesting that traditional funding channels continue to support crypto assets. If the rebound continues, platform companies like Robinhood, eToro, and BitGo will benefit, as the increase in trading volume will improve their brokerage, custody, and institutional service revenues. The market will still be influenced by U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar's performance, and risk appetite. If Jackson Hole signals a hawkish stance or if the AI sector in U.S. stocks continues to pull back, crypto assets may face short-term pressure. Mizuho assesses that this round of rebound has less leverage bubble, and if spot demand continues to flow in, crypto stocks will have a clearer performance transmission path.
-- Price
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