European Carbon Costs High: Bitcoin Mining Migrates to Russia

A rising carbon quota on one side and machines shutting down in Europe while turning on in Russia on the other... Three Vietnamese researchers have just quantified a phenomenon that was already suspected. European carbon taxation may have an unexpected side effect on the geography of Bitcoin mining.

In Brief

• The price of carbon in the EU is linked to carbon emissions in Russia, signaling a migration of Bitcoin mining.
• Companies would shut down their European machines to turn on their Russian machines based on current costs.
• Russia will launch Bitcoin and Ethereum futures in September as part of its new digital currency law.

Bitcoin Mining: A Study Documenting Carbon Leakage

The three Vietnamese researchers Pham Ngoc Toan, Le Tran Trung Hieu, and Nguyen Vu Trung Nguyen examined daily emissions from the electricity sector between 2019 and 2025. The European Union, Russia, and the rest of the world were scrutinized. The goal is to cross-reference this data with Bitcoin closing prices to verify if the price of carbon in Europe actually influences the location of mining. A statistical correlation emerged between the prices of European carbon quotas and carbon emissions in Russia. In other words, when paying to pollute becomes more expensive in Europe, Bitcoin mining migrates eastward during the hours when it becomes most profitable to do so.

This correlation does not appear when comparing the EU to the rest of the world, as Russia stands out. Companies with Bitcoin mining equipment on both sides would shut down their European machines to turn on their Russian ones, depending on the cost of energy and carbon. For now, Russia has no carbon pricing structure. Mining there is therefore structurally cheaper, without a single server needing to physically relocate. So can a climate policy inadvertently shift pollution rather than reduce it?

Is Russia Soon to Become a Crypto Financial Hub?

Russia is not only welcoming low-carbon Bitcoin mining but is also building a genuine financial infrastructure around crypto. The Moscow Exchange (MOEX) plans to launch its first perpetual futures contracts on Bitcoin and Ethereum as early as September 2026:

• Settled in rubles;
• Reserved for qualified investors;
• Without a fixed expiration date.

The timing is no coincidence as this launch coincides with the entry into force on September 1 of a new Russian law regulating digital currency. Moscow is not legalizing the free purchase of Bitcoin for its citizens... far from it. Instead, it is constructing a framework where exposure to crypto only circulates through state-supervised financial channels. MOEX even plans to expand its offering to ten digital assets in the future.

Russia is discreetly attracting part of the Bitcoin (BTC) mining that Europe is making too expensive, while patiently building the financial tools to transform this energy raw material into a domestic investment product. All under the total control of its regulators. However, since 2025, Russia has begun to prohibit mining in certain regions. The door that European carbon seems to be opening could very well close again.

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