Bitcoin at $100,000? Standard Chartered Already Aims for $126,000

A target that remains unchanged... until it risks becoming too cautious. Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, initially maintained his target of $100,000 for Bitcoin by the end of 2026. However, following the doubling of U.S. Treasury bond buybacks and last week's short squeeze, he has raised the bar: for the first time this year, he wrote, there is a risk that this scenario is too low. A return to the all-time high, around $126,000, is no longer excluded by December. Key points of this article: * Geoff Kendrick has maintained his target of $100,000 for Bitcoin by the end of 2026, but now considers this figure potentially too low. * The prediction market Polymarket remains skeptical about reaching this threshold, with only a 25% probability before December 31. The Treasury announcement set the stage. Starting September 9, long bond buybacks will double, from $2 to at least $4 billion per operation, until November 4. This news caused long yields to fall and triggered a violent movement: Bitcoin broke through a multi-week range, liquidated several billion in short positions, touched nearly $79,500, and is now trading around $77,000. Kendrick interprets this rebound as the result of forced liquidations, renewed inflows into spot ETFs, and still low open interest, in other words, room for new buyers if the movement continues. He dismisses the idea of a prolonged correction mirroring the historical four-year cycle. The decline from the October 2025 peak, of about 54%, would even be the shallowest cycle observed so far. According to him, the low point of the current cycle is likely already behind us. Polymarket remains significantly more skeptical {#h-polymarket-reste-nettement-plus-sceptique} ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The prediction market tells a different story, even after the rally. On Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin exceeding $100,000 before December 31 has risen with the price, but remains far from a bullish consensus: around 25% according to post-squeeze readings from August 21, compared to very high levels earlier in the year. Tens of millions of dollars remain committed to these contracts. Other thresholds show the same relative caution. Before last week's leg, bettors still gave a minority chance to a sustainable return above $80,000 or $90,000 by the end of December. The gap between Kendrick's reading, $100,000 too low, possible retest of $126,000, and the market pricing remains wide. This is precisely what makes the gap interesting. Beyond 2026, and a history of ambitious targets {#h-au-dela-de-2026-et-un-historique-de-cibles-ambitieuses} ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Standard Chartered does not stop at December. Kendrick has already outlined, in previous notes, a trajectory towards $200,000 by the end of 2027 and, further out, even higher scenarios, up to $500,000 by 2028 in some of the bank's publications. In this perspective, the $100,000 by the end of 2026 looks more like a milestone than an endpoint. This is not the first time the bank has taken a more optimistic line than the prevailing consensus. It had already maintained its $100,000 target this summer, even when Bitcoin sales by Strategy were worrying part of the market. The bet remains a double-edged sword. Either the Treasury buybacks and renewed risk appetite are enough to prolong the movement, or Bitcoin will need to find another catalyst before December 31 to validate Kendrick's view rather than the still predominantly skeptical bettors on Polymarket.

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