Action Strategy (MSTR): Is the bottom behind us now? Analysis by Vincent Ganne

Bitcoin may have completed its cyclical bear market on July 1, with a low established at $57,750. In this context, a similar question now arises for Strategy stock, which has become over the years the main proxy for Bitcoin in the stock markets and the largest holder of BTC in the world.

Market history shows that Strategy stock often tends to anticipate major movements of Bitcoin. Therefore, the emergence of a sustainable technical reversal signal on the stock would be particularly interesting to confirm the hypothesis of a major low on BTC.

Before analyzing the current chart configuration, it is important to recall how closely Strategy's trajectory is now linked to that of Bitcoin. The company has accumulated a considerable amount of BTC on its balance sheet, making its stock a form of stock market proxy for the world's leading cryptocurrency. Its financial structure and strategy for acquiring Bitcoins also tend to amplify the stock's fluctuations, both during bullish phases and during correction periods.

This particular sensitivity explains the current interest in the technical analysis of Strategy. A sufficiently strong bullish recovery that allows the stock to break through its main resistances would reinforce the idea that a major low has already been recorded on both BTC and Strategy stock.

However, caution is warranted, and the date of Friday, October 16, should be closely monitored.

To this technical issue is added a fundamental and external risk to the Bitcoin market: the upcoming decision by MSCI regarding Strategy. On October 16, MSCI will have to determine whether the company remains eligible for its indices. A potential exclusion could lead to mechanical selling by certain index funds and create additional pressure on the stock price.

The analysis must therefore be conducted on two fronts. On one hand, it is necessary to determine whether Strategy has indeed built a major technical floor. On the other hand, it is important to assess the risk posed by MSCI's decision. The combination of these two factors could provide important indications about the next underlying trend of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin: A bottom to confirm

On the Bitcoin side, several technical elements already argue in favor of a major low formed on July 1 at $57,750. However, the current configuration remains incomplete: the price must still manage to break above the weekly Kumo of the Ichimoku system.

Strategy: Encouraging bullish divergences but beware of October 16

The configuration of Strategy stock is also particularly interesting. After losing about 85% of its value since its all-time high, the stock now shows strong bullish divergences between price and momentum indicators.

These divergences constitute a first argument in favor of the hypothesis of a low formed at the end of June.

However, the reversal is not yet technically validated. Several major obstacles still stand above the price. Strategy must notably reclaim its 200-day and 200-week moving averages, as well as the Kijun and the weekly Kumo of the Ichimoku system.

The stock's ability to gradually break through these various resistance levels will therefore be decisive. Such a sequence would considerably strengthen the scenario of a sustainable floor and, by extension, provide an additional argument in favor of a low already recorded on Bitcoin.

Ultimately, Strategy finds itself today at a particularly important technical moment. The bullish divergences suggest that the worst may be behind us, but the definitive validation of the scenario will still require breaking through several major resistances. Added to this is the deadline of October 16 with MSCI, which could become a significant volatility catalyst.

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