Wholesale Dollar Rises at the Start of September, Surpassing $1,510 Again

The dollar starts September once again at the center of the financial scene, after closing August with its fifth consecutive monthly advance and consolidating above $1,500. The expectation in the city is that during the ninth month of the year, the exchange rate will continue to slide, although analysts do not anticipate a sharp jump at the moment.

The wholesale dollar ended August at $1,508.50, having risen by $23.50, equivalent to a 1.6% monthly increase. However, for the year, the dollar's rise remains well below the accumulated inflation.

The dynamics of August also left a significant change in the official strategy. After several weeks in which the Government sought to contain the wholesale dollar around $1,500, the exchange rate began to move with greater flexibility, in parallel with a relaxation of interest rates. The management of the market, nonetheless, continued through interventions in futures and dollar-linked instruments.

Now, the question that begins to dominate trading desks is how far the dollar can advance in September and how much leeway the Government is willing to grant.

September usually presents some less favorable conditions for the peso. The demand for local currency tends to weaken, while during the first days of the month, the purchase of dollars for savings increases, and payments on cards linked to foreign spending appear.

This seasonal component is joined this year by an additional factor: the market begins to incorporate the electoral scenario of 2027 more intensely, which could gradually accelerate the dollarization of portfolios.

Andrés Reschini from F2 Financial Solutions noted that the lower demand for pesos could correspond with a reduction in the supply of foreign currency. However, he does not currently see signs that would allow for anticipating a strong jump in the dollar and believes that the Government retains tools to moderate potential episodes of volatility.

Gustavo Ber also focused on the political scenario. According to the economist, private demand could remain relatively stable as long as no negative signals appear on that front, although he warned that the acceleration of electoral timelines begins to add uncertainty.

Federico Glustein, meanwhile, expects the dollarization of portfolios to deepen before the election year. The greater liquidity in pesos could help lower rates, but at the same time reduce the attractiveness of carry trade and increase demand for dollar-linked instruments.

Analysts' projections show differences, although they agree that there is currently no scenario of a disordered exchange jump.

Reschini believes that if the Government manages to avoid a greater appreciation of the peso and no external surprises arise, the dollar should not exceed $1,550 during September. Among the external variables to watch, he particularly mentioned the evolution of Brazil, Argentina's main trading partner.

Glustein projects a wholesale dollar of between $1,540 and $1,570 on average during the month, while operator Gustavo Quintana suggests a slightly lower range, between $1,490 and $1,520.

Futures also incorporate a moderate depreciation. At the end of August, the market placed the wholesale dollar at $1,536.50 for the end of September and at $1,621 for December.

Estimates agree on one point: the capacity for official intervention will remain decisive. During August, participation in futures and dollar-linked bonds allowed for limiting the movement of the spot, even as the Government relaxed its defense of the $1,500 mark.

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