NBU Forecasts 10% Inflation and 1.8% GDP Growth in 2026

The National Bank of Ukraine expects that inflation in the country will reach 10% in 2026, while real GDP will grow by only 1.8%. The budget deficit, excluding grants, could reach 35% of GDP, and the volume of international support will amount to $87 billion. In 2027, inflation is expected to slow down to 6.9%, and in 2028 it will return to the target level of 5%. The acceleration of inflation is attributed to the expansion of budgetary incentives, increased labor costs, and rising fuel prices. In July, the NBU raised the discount rate from 15% to 15.5%, with a possible further increase to 16% in 2026. In 2026, real GDP is projected to grow by 1.8%, while in 2027-2028, growth will be 2.8-3% per year. Unemployment is expected to decrease to 10% in 2026 and to 9% in 2027-2028. Real wages are expected to increase by more than 12% in 2026, then slow down to 4-6% per year. A net population outflow of 200,000 people is anticipated in 2026, with a return of 100,000 migrants in 2027 and 500,000 in 2028. The budget deficit in 2027 is expected to be at 26%, and in 2028 - 15% of GDP. The main source of financing will be international support amounting to $87 billion in 2026.

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