Data: Analyzing the Bitcoin bottom or around $53,600, but demand conditions remain very unfavorable

According to The Block, CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno stated that the bottom for Bitcoin may be around $53,600, which is the current realized price and has historically marked the bottom of bear markets multiple times. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $62,150, about 9% higher than that level. However, demand conditions remain weak. CryptoQuant estimates that total demand decreased by 652,000 BTC last week, marking the largest single-week decline since January 2022. The 30-day ETF demand growth has dropped to -74,000 BTC, the weakest level since the ETF was launched. Meanwhile, the realized losses over the past 30 days amount to 187,000 BTC, significantly lower than the 400,000 BTC when it first fell below $60,000 in February and the 1.2 million BTC during the FTX collapse in November 2022, indicating that a capitulation-style sell-off has not yet been reached. Moreno stated that while the price level may suggest a bottom is near, a bull market requires a recovery in demand, which has not yet been reflected in the data. Until total demand stabilizes, ETF capital flows recover, and realized losses reach capitulation peaks, the current price should be viewed as a candidate for valuation bottom rather than a confirmed cycle bottom.

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