Bitcoin's Realized Cap Impulse Indicator Turns Positive, Signs of On-Chain Fund Flow Recovery Emerge

Bitcoin's "Realized Cap Impulse" indicator has recently ended a continuous 93-day period of negative values, turning positive for the first time. This marks a reversal signal following the longest capital contraction cycle since the bear market of 2022. The indicator measures whether the flow of tokens with actual economic significance in the market is driving capital base expansion by tracking the momentum of changes in realized market capitalization, combined with Bitcoin supply and price factors. The positive turn of the indicator indicates a change in the flow of funds within the Bitcoin network. Data shows that the indicator broke above the zero axis on August 20 when the BTC price was around $73,000, and it has maintained positive values for 8 consecutive days. Currently, the BTC price has risen to approximately $78,900, an increase of about 8% during this period. As of the latest data, the indicator reading stands at 0.198, down from the peak of 0.226 reached on August 26. Historical data indicates that similar signals at the end of bear markets have been accompanied by significant rebounds in Bitcoin: after the indicator turned positive in September 2015, Bitcoin rose about 160% within a year; after March 2019, it increased about 173% in 90 days; and after January 2023, it rose about 45% in 90 days, with a total increase of 104% within a year. However, the realized cap momentum indicator is not an absolute signal of a cycle bottom; similar positive turns occurred in early 2018 and 2022, but the market did not immediately enter a sustained upward phase afterward. Analysts believe that a sustained positive reading of the indicator confirmed by price trends is more valuable than a single-day break above the zero axis.