On the Night of NVIDIA’s Earnings Report, AI Semiconductors “Get a Head Start”—What Are Investors Betting On?

By: WEEX|2026-05-20 15:15:00

The pendulum of the U.S. stock market is always swinging back and forth between “macroeconomic pressures” and “industry confidence.”

Tonight, after the market closes on May 20 (Eastern Time), NVIDIA (NVDA) is set to release its Q1 earnings report for fiscal year 2027. This release, viewed by the market as a “barometer of the AI supercycle,” will directly test the strength of the semiconductor sector.

And even before the earnings are unveiled, the sector has already gotten a head start.

I. Collective “Early Rally” in Semiconductors: What Are Investors Betting On?

According to real-time data from WEEX TradFi, the semiconductor sector has shown strong performance in pre-market trading today:

MRVL (Marvell) up approximately 7%, trading at $179.03
SNDK (SanDisk) up 6.9%, trading at $1,385.72
ARM (Arm) rose 4.9% to $222.60
INTC (Intel) rose 4.3% to $111.79
MU (Micron) rose 3.8% to $703.57

Meanwhile, macro-defensive assets were also in the mix: XOM (ExxonMobil) rose 2.3%, and LMT (Lockheed Martin) rose 1.3%. In the crypto sector, COIN (Coinbase), buoyed by expectations surrounding the CLARITY Act, rose 2.3%, while CRCL (Circle) followed suit with a modest 0.4% gain.

While high oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and rising U.S. Treasury yields certainly pose pressures, the “essential nature” of the AI supply chain clearly outweighs these factors.

WEEX Labs believes that this round of semiconductor “rally” is not merely speculative hype, but rather a precise bet by capital on the expansion of the AI industry chain from the “training side” to the “inference/storage/interconnection side.” Particularly noteworthy is that tokenized U.S. stock assets on-chain (such as MRVLON/USDT and SNDKON/USDT), leveraging 24/7 trading and T+0 settlement mechanisms, often reflect institutional portfolio rebalancing intentions earlier than traditional markets and have become “leading indicators” for capturing industry rotations.

II. NVIDIA’s Earnings Report: More Than Just a “Boost”

As the “shovel seller” of the AI era, NVIDIA has delivered results that exceeded expectations for several consecutive quarters. However, with tonight’s earnings report, the focus has shifted from “whether it will beat expectations” to “the quality of the beat.”

Analysts generally expect Q1 revenue to fall within the $67 billion to $79 billion range, with EPS of approximately $1.48 to $1.78, representing significant year-over-year growth. However, the market’s true focus lies in the following three dimensions:

The shipment pace and actual revenue contribution of the Blackwell architecture—this is the core of next-generation AI computing power, and its ramp-up speed will directly determine the tightness or looseness of computing power supply over the next 1–2 years.
Q2 earnings guidance—which is even more important than the Q1 data itself. If memory (HBM), networking chips, and custom ASICs begin to scale up, it signals that the AI supercycle is shifting from a “NVIDIA-led solo act” to “full-chain resonance,” directly impacting order visibility for upstream players such as MRVL, MU, and SNDK.
Gross Margin Trends — As product complexity and R&D investments increase, the market is exceptionally sensitive to NVIDIA’s ability to maintain ultra-high gross margins, as this is critical to the sustainability of its profit quality.

Historical experience shows that “spike-like volatility” following NVIDIA’s earnings reports has become the norm: results exceeding expectations do not necessarily lead to an immediate surge (the “sell the news” effect is common), but if guidance is strong, partners across the supply chain often experience a catch-up rally.

Click here to trade:

NVDAON/USDT MRVLON/USDT MUON/USDT SNDKON/USDT ARMON/USDT INTCON/USDT

III. Trading Logic Amid Macroeconomic Noise: Offense or Defense?

The current market landscape shows a distinct structural divergence: AI and semiconductor stocks are leading the rally, while energy and defensive assets are strengthening in tandem. This precisely reflects that the market is at a crossroads between “optimistic expectations” and “macroeconomic pressures.”

Scenario Analysis:

Better-than-expected scenario: The semiconductor sector continues to outperform, with capital rotating toward edge AI and AI agent application layers; crypto financial assets such as CRCL and COIN accelerate as risk appetite rebounds.
In-line with or slightly below expectations scenario: Short-term volatility as the market digests valuations; some capital shifts to defensive sectors like XOM, LMT, and ABBV; the market enters a sideways consolidation phase during the “earnings vacuum period.”
Compounding Macro Disruptions: If U.S. Treasury yields spike simultaneously, highly leveraged TradFi tokens may face a liquidity stampede; be vigilant for post-market volatility spilling over into the next day’s Asian session.

Regardless of the short-term outcome, the industry trend of AI evolving from “computing power investment” to “storage and applications” remains unchanged. Tonight’s earnings report is merely the halftime whistle in a marathon—and humanity’s thirst for intelligence has never been more urgent.

We await the answers.

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